Downside risks to growth persist, given that the new government is still in its formative years and significant policy reforms are yet to be taken to ensure sustained pick-up in domestic economic activity
The CII Business Confidence Index (CIIBCI) for July- September 2014 quarter climbed to a three-year high of 57.4, on the back of political stability and improving macro-economic environment.
The reading is based on a survey of more than 150 firm of varying sizes, the CII release said. Majority of the respondents (43.7 per cent) belonged to large-scale firms, while 12.6 per cent were from medium-scale firms and 37.8 per cent and 5.9 per cent each were from small-scale and micro firms, respectively.
"The continued uptrend in BCI sends out green signals in terms of economic recovery," said the CII release, adding, "however, it should also be approached with a bit of cautious optimism as the downside risks to growth persist, given that the new government is still in its formative years and significant policy reforms are yet to be taken to ensure sustained pick-up in domestic economic activity"
Following are the findings of the survey:
* GDP expected in a range of 5.0-5.5 per cent in 2014-15; WPI inflation expected to moderate in 5.5-6.5 per cent in the current fiscal.
* Current Account Deficit seen less than 2.5 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal.
* Exchange rate seen around Rs 59-61 per US dollar in 2014-15.
* Capacity utilization expected to improve in 2QFY15 as compared to the previous quarter.
* Investment plans expected to decline or remain same in 2QFY15 due to surplus capacity available in the economy.
* Majority of the respondents expect increase in profit before tax led by increase in new order / sales and moderation in expenditure.
* Majority of the respondents expect increase in exports.
* Slow pick up in global demand and high inflation emerge as major threats
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